Amazing Nadal, surprising Schiavone shine in City of Light

Tennis Betting Lines

06/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Order was somewhat restored with Rafael Nadal titling in Paris, but the women's edition of the 2010 French Open failed to make a whole lot of sense, considering Francesca Schiavone somehow won it all on the crushed red brick at Roland Garros.

The 24-year-old Nadal reclaimed his thrown as he rolled to a fifth French Open title in six years. He exacted some revenge on Robin Soderling in this year's men's final, as the strapping Spaniard easily straight-setted the Swede who shocked him in the fourth round at RG a year ago, when Nadal was battling two very sore knees.

The demonstrative Schiavone, on the other hand, came out of nowhere to become the first-ever Italian woman in the 126-year history of Grand Slam tennis to not only reach, but win a major title, which she did by ousting Aussie Samantha Stosur in straight sets in the championship match.

Stosur charged into her first-ever Grand Slam final with a sequence of victories over former world No. 1 and four-time French Open champ Justine Henin, in the fourth round, reigning world No. 1 and former titlist Serena Williams, in the quarterfinals, and another former top-ranked star Jelena Jankovic, in the semis.

So it would only stand to reason that Stosur would cruise past Schiavone in the final, right?

Wrong!

Back over on the men's side, everyone was anticipating a fourth French Open final between Nadal and the reigning No. 1, at the time, Federer, but Federer failed in his attempt to reach a fifth straight Roland Garros finale, as Soderling stunned the 2009 champion in the quarterfinals last week. Soderling's second shocker here in two years prevented Federer from extending his incredible Grand Slam semifinal appearance streak to 24. The amazing Swiss had reached a record 23 straight major semis before falling to the big-hitting Soderling. He hadn't failed to reach a major semi since the 2004 French Open, which was a third-round exit against three-time Roland Garros titlist Gustavo Kuerten that year.

Don't feel too bad for Roger, though, he's still the men's all-time Grand Slam king, with 16 majors, and the reigning Aussie Open and Wimbledon champ.

The ultra-fit Nadal, meanwhile, continues to serve as a human backboard, returning just about everything that lands on his side of the net. He simply imposes his will, bludgeoning you (well, not you) all the while with one powerful groundstroke after another.

There's really no secret to his success. Rafa's just gonna outwork ya and outhit ya, especially on the dirt.

With his latest exploits, Nadal is now a seven-time major champion, not to mention an Olympic gold medalist, and only the second man in the Open Era (since 1968) to corral five French Open titles. The legendary Bjorn Borg is still the leader with six championships at Roland Garros...but Rafa's now knockin' on the door.

Nadal, who is the first man to win five French Opens in a six-year span, had to overcome quite a bit over the last year in order to return to the top. His '09 season was basically derailed by knee and abdominal injuries. Not only was he shocked by Soderling at the French last year, he was forced to pull out of Wimbledon and unable to defend his title there, which he earned in 2008 by outlasting Federer in the final in what many people consider to be the greatest tennis match of all-time.

Nadal headed to Paris having won a trio of ATP Masters titles, all on his beloved red clay, and the first of those titles, which came in Monte Carlo, marked his first title of any kind in 11 long months while still on the mend from the knee and abdominal issues.

On Sunday, Rafa also supplanted Federer atop the men's rankings, as be became only the third man in history to regain the No. 1 ranking after surrendering it. The other two gentlemen were Federer and Ivan Lendl. Federer regained the top spot last year after losing it to Rafa in '08.

Nadal and Federer squared off in three straight French Open finals, from 2006-08, with the Spaniard winning on all three occasions. When Nadal was knocked out by Soderling last year, it opened the door for Federer to capture his first French championship and become only the sixth man in history to secure the career Grand Slam, or all four major titles, which he did when he handled Soderling in the finale.

Unfortunately, a Federer-Nadal rematch just wasn't in the offing this time around.

Note: Nadal won all 21 of his sets en route to his latest title at RG and 40th career title overall.

Back over on the women's side, all hell was breaking loose.

Most were anticipating a mouth-watering Serena-Henin quarterfinal in Paris, but the rising Stosur made sure that didn't happen. The big-serving Aussie, once regarded as just a doubles specialist, stunningly knocked out both future Hall-of-Famers in back-to-back outings.

Henin was playing in her first French Open in three years. She "retired" from tennis just two weeks before Roland Garros 2008 commenced, as she was the reigning world No. 1 and reigning French Open champ at the time.

The sweet-swingin' Belgian star returned to the WTA Tour back in January, and wound up losing to her arch-rival Serena in the Aussie Open final.

Serena and Henin weren't the only disappointments in Paris, as world No. 2 Wimbledon runner-up Venus Williams failed to get past the fourth round (Nadia Petrova) and two-time major finalist Elena Dementieva gave way to the diminutive Schiavone, and a most-untimely injury, in the final four.

Dementieva, considered to be the best player on the women's tour without a major title, dropped the first set in her semifinal against Schiavone and then had to quit due to a crippling left calf injury, as she left Court Chatrier in tears last week. It seemed like a golden opportunity for Dementieva to break through for her first-ever Grand Slam title...but no one told her left calf.

Dementieva and Jankovic are the two best players without a major title among the ladies, and Jankovic also lost out on a great chance last week when she was manhandled (or is it womanhandled?) by the ever-improving Stosur in the semis.

That could have been a very interesting final between the former U.S. Open runner-up Jankovic and the former U.S. Open and French Open finalist Dementieva...but Schiavone and Stosur ignored the script.

The uber-surprising Schiavone, who will turn 30 on June 23, is now all the way up to No. 6 on the planet thanks to her improbable, if not impossible, run in Paris, where she won as a 17th seed. The only other time a woman captured the French Open seeded lower than 10th was back in 1933. That's only 77 years ago!

At 29, Schiavone became the oldest woman to capture her first Grand Slam title in 41 years and she's now the oldest woman in 12 years to crack the top 10 for the first time in her career.

So how did the Milan native win seven straight matches in Paris?

I'm really not sure.

She doesn't have any real weapons, other than grit and speed, but she does get players off their game with a slower pace, wicked slice and a ton of spin. If she's going to succeed anywhere, it would have to be on the slow red clay.

Will Schiavone be a one-Slam wonder, like an Iva Majoli?

Probably.

In a few weeks, she'll try to become the first woman in eight years to win the French Open and Wimbledon back-to-back.

Note: Schiavone lost in her first eight WTA Tour finals, from 2000-06, before finally claiming a championship in Austria in 2007. The French Open marks only her fourth title since joining the circuit 12 years ago.

As far as last year's women's finalists were concerned, 2009 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova was ousted by fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko in the third round, while '09 runner-up and former world No. 1 Dinara Safina was shown the door in Paris in the first round by 39-year-old Japanese Kimiko Date Krumm.

That's rough.

If you're looking for disappointments on the men's side, I guess you don't have to look any further than Federer. How else can you describe it other than "disappointing," when the world No. 1 and reigning champ exits a tournament in the round of eight?

Novak Djokovic also disappointed when he blew a two-sets-to-none lead against Austrian veteran Jurgen Melzer in the quarters, as the surprising Melzer landed in his first-ever major semi, only to lose to his fellow lefthander Nadal.

Some other underachieving men were No. 4 Aussie Open runner-up Andy Murray and 2009 Wimbledon runner-up Andy Roddick. Murray succumbed to big-hitting Czech Tomas Berdych in the round of 16, while Roddick gave way to unheralded Russian Teimuraz Gabashvili in the third round. Roddick had his best-ever showing in Paris a year ago when he landed in the fourth round. Berdych, like Melzer last week, became a first-time Grand Slam semifinalist.

In addition to Melzer and Berdych, Russian Mikhail Youzhny and Spaniard Nicolas Almagro enjoyed great stays in Paris by reaching the quarters.

The biggest surprise in the women's draw, outside of Schiavone, was unseeded 22-year-old Kazakhstanian Yaroslava Shvedova, who soared all the way into the quarters before losing to Jankovic.

The '10 Grand Slam season will resume in two weeks on the famed grass at Wimbledon, where the defending champions are Federer and Serena. Maybe Federer and Nadal will resume their classic rivalry at the All England Club. And maybe Serena and Henin will do the same.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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