AL West: A's won't go down without a fight

Baseball Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When it comes to predicting the American League West in recent years, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have done their best to eliminate any uncertainty by monopolizing the division for the past few seasons.

Last year, the Halos won the West by a 10-game margin. In 2008, the cushion was a whopping 21 games. The year before, six games. Although a lot can happen over the next couple of months, this year's race is shaking out quite differently.

There are the Texas Rangers (54-39), perched atop the division standings with a five-game cushion, and a newly acquired ace in former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. The Angels (50-45) have battled some key injuries, but they've captured five of the last six AL West titles and are once again in the hunt.

While the Angels and Rangers currently hold the top two spots, the Oakland Athletics (46-47) have joined the hunt to make it a three-team race. It's worth noting that Oakland is the team that broke up the Angels' string by winning the AL West crown in 2006.

Make no mistake, with an eight-game deficit to make up, the A's have their work cut out for them. But there is certainly hope in the Bay Area, and that hope has been fostered by the team's season-high five-game win streak, which came to a halt Monday night against Boston.

Oakland's recent surge has somewhat changed the landscape in the division -- or at least, sent a message to Texas and L.A. that the A's don't plan on bowing out of contention any time soon. As of Monday, they sat at .500 for the first time since June 15.

"Everyone's hitting and we're putting it all together," said Vin Mazzaro, who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in Sunday's 9-6 win over Kansas City. "We're doing great, making great plays. We're on a good streak right now going to face Boston. Going in with a lot of confidence and playing good is the key."

However, the road is about to get much tougher for the A's. On tap through the next few weeks are series with Boston (53-40), Chicago (51-41), Texas and then Chicago again. Chicago and Texas currently lead their respective divisions, while Boston is in the playoff hunt in the ultra-competitive AL East. That daunting stretch winds through the July 31 trade deadline.

In other words, we'll know by then whether Oakland is a contender or not. How the team navigates these next few series will ultimately impact general manager Billy Beane's decision to be a buyer, seller, or neither at the trade deadline.

The A's need a power hitter like BP needs its oil well cap to work. Their 61 home runs on the season is the second-lowest mark in the American League. Then again, the recipe for run production may be as simple as stealing more bases.

According to the Oakland Tribune, the A's are 32-15 in games when they steal a base, and 14-32 in games when they do not. They rank fifth in the AL with 72 stolen bases, and their 80-percent success rate leads the majors.

ANGELS EYEING TOUGH ROAD AHEAD

The Oakland Athletics aren't alone in their upcoming stretch against some of the toughest opponents the American League has to offer. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will play their next dozen games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers.

In addition, they'll be a bit shorthanded with starting pitcher Scott Kazmir being placed on the disabled list with left shoulder fatigue following Sunday's 2-1 loss to Seattle. Granted, Kazmir has struggled mightily in his first season in Anaheim, posting a 6.92 ERA to go along with a 7-9 record. He was in line to start Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium, but that turn will now go to either Sean O'Sullivan or Trevor Bell, both of whom were on their way from Triple-A Salt Lake. As of Tuesday morning, no announcement had been made.

In the meantime, all eyes are on general manager Tony Reagins to swing a deal to improve the ballclub before the trade deadline. Reagins' task is to bridge the five-game gap from the first-place Rangers, who have a payroll of about $50 million less than the Angels. Ideally, he would like to find another big bat in the middle of the lineup to replace injured first baseman Kendry Morales.

"It would be nice if we could go get another Kendry Morales - get that same stroke - that would be great," All-Star outfielder Torii Hunter told the OC Register. "If nothing happens, then all of us have to do it. I have faith in this team and this franchise. We can still do this."

HUNTER THE UNHERALDED STAR OF THE RANGERS' ROTATION

Over the past couple of weeks, any mention of the Texas Rangers' starting rotation has pretty much started and ended with new addition Cliff Lee. However, right-hander Tommy Hunter has been as big a sparkplug as any to the team's pitching staff.

Hunter, in only his second big league season, is the first Texas starter to begin a season 6-0 since Esteban Loaiza in 1999. He'll try to improve to 7-0 when he takes the hill Tuesday night opposite Tigers' starter Armando Galarraga.

Since being called up from Triple-A Oklahoma City in early-June, Hunter has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts, with the lone exception being an injury-shortened outing June 14 at Florida. He has already set a team record by winning five straight home starts to begin the season.

"The more opportunities he gets to pitch he just gains more confidence," second baseman Ian Kinsler recently said of his 24-year-old teammate. "He attacks the zone with all his pitches. When he's doing that, he's keeping hitters off-balance. That's basically what it comes down to. He's not scared and he trusts his stuff."

MARINERS HAVEN'T CAPITALIZED ON CLOSE GAMES

At 21 games below .500 entering Tuesday, obviously not a whole lot has gone according to plan for the Seattle Mariners. Most notably, the offense has remained in slumber mode since the very beginning of the season.

However, a closer look at the numbers outlines an ongoing issue: and that is, an inability to come through in tight situations. Entering Tuesday, the Mariners have had 47 of their 93 games -- or, exactly half -- decided by two runs or fewer. Monday's 6-1 setback to the Chicago White Sox broke a string of three straight one-run games for Seattle.

In those 47 games, the Mariners have a record of 20-27. In general, that has been the result of an offense that consistently struggles to come up with timely hits. But lately, an increasing amount of baserunning blunders have further hindered Seattle's run production. For manager Don Wakamatsu, the concern is that veteran players are making mental mistakes. In the 10th inning of Sunday's game, Ichiro Suzuki got himself caught in a rundown between second and third base, taking the potential go-ahead run off the basepath.

"Once it happens, the veteran players know it's a mistake, but yeah, we address it in our pregame meetings," Wakamatsu said. "We know it is something we have talked about for the last couple of months. One mistake can cost us a ballgame, and we don't have any room to do that."

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

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